Flash wit in a Crooked Timber post

So much serious stuff to worry about; time for the London lit crit approach to political commentary:

Honorary Ladettes R Us
Posted by Belle Waring

OMG! It’s recently been brought to my attention that I’ve only written one post for CT this whole month! That’s, like, totally weak! Under our new posting rules, I’m going to be bringing my A game, every single day. “No Scrubs” is going to be playing in my cubicle 24-7. And if I slack off, dsquared is going to subject me to ferocious Welsh discipline, of the sort handed out at the gloomy Welsh “public” school he attended starting at age 3. (I can’t go into it here, but it involves leeks. And that white jack thingy from bowls.) Let’s see…um…there must be something out there on the interweb. Here we go, something funny a straight white guy said!:

I’m glad the press is having a dance party with this, because God knows the Democrats are frozen at the steering wheel. I just saw a segment on MSNBC (which has been all over the Kerik story today, bless Rick Kaplan’s cyborg heart) pitting a Republican strategist against a Democratic one, and the Democratic spokesman—who goes by the name of Michael Brown—seemed to have washed down his weeny pills with warm Ovaltine. Instead of kicking Kerik and Giuliana between the uprights for three points, Brown fretted that vetting process for cabinet candidates was “going to far,” and that we were in danger of discouraging people from public service. Oh no, we wouldn’t want to discourage philandering, pocket-lining, deadbeat no-show bully-boys like Bernard Kerik from having the opportunity to muck around with our civil liberties in the name of “national security” and hold bigshot press conferences. I mean, if that sort of thing were to continue happening, people might start mistaking the Democrats for an opposition party and thinking that the press has an adversarial role to play, and we don’t want that to happen, it might actually lead to signs of life in that mausoleum we call the nation’s capital. This Michael Brown wouldn’t even criticize Alberto Gonzalez for botching the background check and vetting of Kerik. I don’t understand the self-emasculation of so many Democratic strategists, what they’re afraid of, why they concede so much in advance. Give them an opening, and they close it like a silk kimono, ever so demure. What are they in politics for, the professional grooming tips?

You know, James Wolcott could be totally gay. I’m agnostic on this front. I know, I’ll ask one of my male co-bloggers! They know so much stuff, it’s awesome. Guys? Oh, and, does anyone want a coffee?
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A Christmas Greeting from Mark Twain

Not being a fan of the telephone, and noting the near universal usage of cell phones in every public venue, it strikes me as appropriate to reproduce Mark Twain's Christmas greeting from 1890:

It is my heart-warmed and world-embracing Christmas hope and aspiration that all of us, the high, the low, the rich, the poor, the admired, the despised, the loved, the hated, the civilized, the savage (every man and brother of us all throughout the whole earth), may eventually be gathered together in a heaven of everlasting rest and peace and bliss, except the inventor of the telephone.

My source

Stanley Associates

There's an article on Stanley Associates in the Techworking column of the Business section in today's Washington Post. Stanley has a contract with the Law Library in the Library of Congress. One member of our family has been on their payroll intermittently over the past couple of years. See
TECHWORKING: Stanley Associates (Washington Post, Monday, December 13, 2004; Page E05)

Stanley Associates plans to hire about 70 people as soon as possible. Phil Nolan, president and chief executive, talked with The Post's Andrea Caumont.

A company profile accompanies the article.

Google Alphabet

Google is trying out a new search aid called "Google Suggest." As you type your search term, the program opens a list of possibilities. Try it by typing lib and then pausing. Google responds by offering Library of Congress as the first possibility. The list of suggestions is based on Google's ranking of the terms based on its relevance ranking algorithms.

Here's what Google says about it: "This new web search service suggests queries as a user types what he or she is looking for into the search box. By offering more refined searches up front, Google Suggest can make searching more convenient and efficient, because it eliminates the need to type the entire text of a query. In addition, the service can connect users with new query suggestions that are useful, intriguing, and fun." (source)

Google Suggest lends itself to the creation of a "Google Aphabet" made up of the top ranked suggestions for each letter of the alphabet. There are sites that give this list and one, by Patrick Gaskill, that constantly updates as Google ranking is updated. Here it is Suggested Google Alphabet

A fully automated look at the most popular search keyword for each letter of the alphabet

After reading about the exposed Google Suggest URL over at InsideGoogle and seeing the ABCs of Google posted by Hatta on Slashdot, I decided to automate the process. Each time you load this page, it checks the most popular keyword for each letter of the alphabet given by Google Suggest, and displays them here for your viewing pleasure.

A amazon
B best buy
C cnn
D dictionary
E ebay
F firefox
G games
H hotmail
I ikea
J jokes
K kazaa
L lyrics
M mapquest
N news
O online dictionary
P paris hilton
Q quotes
R recipes
S spybot
T tara reid
U ups
V verizon
W weather
X xbox
Y yahoo
Z zip codes

©2004 Patrick Gaskill. Your opinions go to comments. (at sign). patrickgaskill. (period). com.

An etymological dictionary online - looks good

Word origins matter. Sometime toward the end of my four years in high school Eric Partridge's book Origins became a favorite possession. I still have it; a 1959 Christmas gift, I would guess, from Uncle Ernie. The Oxford English Dictionary has supplanted it in recent years. But OED has drawbacks. The condensed version requires a magnifying glass and the online version requires a pricy subscription (thus available only in libraries as a rule). Here now is a new Online Etymological Dictionary. I tried it out with the word calendar with pretty good results.

calendar
c.1205, from O.Fr. calendier "list, register," from L. calendarium "account book," from kalendae "calends" the first day of the Roman month -- when debts fell due and accounts were reckoned -- from calare "to announce solemnly, call out," as the priests did in proclaiming the new moon that marked the calends, from PIE base *gal- "to call, shout" (cf. Skt. usakala "cock," lit. "dawn-calling;" M.Ir. cailech "cock;" Gk. kaleo "to call," kelados "noise," kledon "report, fame;" O.C.S. glasu "voice," glagolu "voice;" O.H.G. halan, O.N. kalla "to call;" O.E. hlowan "to low;" Lith. kalba "language"). Taken by the early Church for its register list of saints and their feast days. The -ar spelling in Eng. is 17c. to differentiate it from the now obscure calender "cloth-presser" (from M.L. calendra, from L. cylindrus, from the shape of the machine used).

Wikis, Wikipedia, and the encyclopedia business

A favorite blogger, Tim Bray, spent some years working for publishers of encyclopedias and dictionaries. He says:

I spent three years full-time working on the New Oxford English Dictionary Project at the end of the Eighties. Then, while working for Open Text, we did projects with Random House in New York on one of the big Webster dictionaries, and Grolier, a New England Encyclopedia publisher.

After I left Open Text, I did some consulting for Encyclopædia Britannica on their back-room editorial and publishing processes. My consulting clients also included the European Union’s Office of Official Publications in Luxembourg and the tech-publishing arms of a couple of technology companies.

He establishes these credentials in writing about the Wikipedia, a collaborative, online, all-volunteer, open-source, ever-expanding encyclopedia. Here's a link to his post on the topic.

To him, "encyclopedias are wonderful things, if only as manifestations of the lovable human urge to take on ridiculously huge projects; to build something much bigger than oneself. The drive to write down, well, everything, briefly and in alphabetical order, combines hubris with a love of language and learning; it is wholly admirable."

Apart from being a useful encyclopedia, Wikipedia is interesting as the pre-eminent implementation of wiki software. See the Wikipedia entry on wiki for a full explanation of the wiki phenomenon. I've started several wikis at work, trying to find ways to improve communication and reduce the volume of face-to-face meetings and email receipts. I spend a quarter of my work time in meetings, and the proportion is growing; meetings beget meetings. My email inbox receives more than 100 new messages a day. It's just too much. Wiki's can help. They occupy a middle ground between the one and the other. As substitutes for meetings, they're a little like conference calls with the advantage that you don't have to commit a specific time to the discussion and your words are written rather than oral. As substitutes for email, they're like weblogs: broadcast for many to see, but in a collected and organized fashion rather than piled up chronologically in your inbox. Unlike weblogs, users can be defined with specific rights. That is, wikis can be restricted for use by members of a committee, a cataloging team, or other group. They can have a single editor or any number of people with writing privileges.

My first try at a workplace wiki was aimed at a group that met to discuss communication issues. I prepared wiki space to enable participants in a meeting to elaborate, raise questions and give answers, and correct one another's contributions. Only one participant out of a couple dozen, was at all enthusiastic.

My second is within a committee I chair for improving and eventually replacing our statistical management policies and software system. This is working out better. I've put up background documents, meeting notes, and plans. A couple of others have joined in -- that is, made contributions not just read what's there. In this case there could be pay off for the development effort I've made.

There's a third I've helped with that has a specific function for music catalogers. That one's working out well.

We've also tried wiki at home with pretty good success. Here, we have a wiki to keep track of our gifting: the hints we receive, the places we're shopping, problems we encounter (such as canceled orders), prices and delivery costs, and what's pending and what in hand.

I've been interested in wiki design -- the way pages display and the text enhancements (boldface, colors, etc.) they use. I like adjusting the configuration files to make them do interesting things (like floating right-hand columns). The basic wiki is a white screen with typewriter-style text and no graphical or textual enhancements. Adding visual enhancements makes them more complicated. I'm not sure which is better -- simple and plain or complex and fancy.

Isherwood

There's a new biography of Christopher Isherwood. See this link for a nice long review article in LAWeekly.

The book: Isherwood: A Life Revealed by Peter Parker, a "massive 832-page, 12-years-in-the-making tome intended as a more or less definitive study."

The reviewer says "Isherwood emerges as clearly the most fascinating and arguably the most important cultural figure of modern times whose importance continues to grow. And in George W. Bush’s America, whose gay community Isherwood did so much to inspire, a struggle against a powerful coven of "moral" posturers makes his living and working example more vital than ever. ... While not designed for readers unfamiliar with Isherwood’s work, Life Revealed isn’t a dust-dry academic exercise. It’s a lively, if complex, read."

Classy glass

We found these glass disks in a box up in the attic. I can't recall their origin, probably my VISTA days in East St. Louis in the late 60's. Anyway, they look nice in the window of my basement office.

Tough luck China?

Chinese economic policy is in the news again. James K. Galbraith has an interesing piece in Newsday on the decline of the dollar. His take on the subject is in the title of the piece: The dollar's decline is not yet cause for alarm. His main point is that China (and Japan) will be forced to scale back economic growth in order to keep the US economy from collapsing. To this he says "tough luck."

He also says, as do many others, that the main impact of the falling dollar will be in Europe. ("An unequivocal loser is Europe, which has been hoping for an export-led fix to its own, largely self-inflicted, mass unemployment. The Europeans can forget about that.")

In an interview, Galbraith expanded upon this article (TomPaine.com: James K. Galbraith reflections on the falling US dollar.) He says that in depending on foreigners to finance the US debt, the US is, in effect, asking them to endorse the war in Iraq and other US foreign policy. They are very unlikely to do this indefinitely. ("[We in America] must turn away from our present over-reliance on armed forces and private bankers, far away from the fantasy of self-serving dominance for which, the markets are clearly telling us, the world will not agree to pay.") The risks of the current US position are great: "The rising unpredictability of US policy ­- including foreign policy ­- doesn't help. If one major player gets wind that others may dump, then the urge to join in becomes hard to resist. This is exactly analogous to an old-fashioned stock panic or run on the bank."

His main solutions to the current unstable and dangerous situation are interesting: (1) Abandon floating exchange rates and go back to the gold standard and (2) Stimulate consumption in third-world countries. On the first, he points to the success of the Chinese in pagging their currency to the dollar. On the second, he says: "We need an industrial strategy based on technological leadership, collective security, and smart use of the world's resources. The financial counterpart must be a new source of liquidity for many developing countries, permitting them to step up their imports, and correspondingly our exports and employment. This will probably require a new network of regional regulatory agents, empowered to enforce capital control and to take responsibility for successful development strategies among their members."

There are interesting parallels between what Galbraith says and the Chinese government says. The People's Daily Online has an interview with Chong Quan, spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, in which Chong Quan addresses both the exchange rate and foreign investment issues. See How to look at the breakthrough of trillion US Dollars in China's foreign trade?. Regarding Galbraith's first solution, he says pegging the Chinese currency to the dollar has served the country well. It's huge accumulation of dollars gives it protection against the instablility generated by currency speculators and generally "resisting the economic risk from without." On foreign investment he says that China is now a major investor in foreign countries and its investments are growing.

Chong Quan's remarks also point out that China can realistically expect eventually to displace the US as the dominant world economy. He says the "World Investment Report 2004" of the UN Trade and Development Conference declares "China has at present become one of the two engines for the growth of the world economy." China currently has a huge volume of imports and exports amounting to one trillion dollars. It plans to invest heavily in science and technology and improve both its industrial efficiency and business acumen (management proficiency). It's goal is to develop products under Chinese patents that are high-quality and that involve high levels of technological sophistication. It wants to have its own distribution networks. It wants Chinese businesses to compete effectively with multi-national corporations.

So, it may be tough luck for the Chinese to have to do most of the work to (in effect) sustain the American economy as the dollar continues to fall in value, but in the long run it's reasonable to predict that the balance of power will shift their way as the Chinese economy continues to grow.

In this context, there's a nice article in today's Washington Post about a Chinese manufacturing plant being set up in Hungary to produce TV sets for the European market. It describes foreign investment by the Chinese and the Chinese quest for innovation and making products for which consumers will pay a premium price. Here's some of the article:

China's role as a global manufacturing center is well-established, but the scene here in western Hungary highlights the even grander plans of the country's largest companies. Urged on by China's government and armed with credit from state-owned banks and stock market listings, many are going global in a bid to gain scale, tap new markets and transform themselves into brands that can challenge the world's preeminent logos.

Chinese computer-maker Lenovo's purchase of International Business Machines Corp.'s personal computer business is only the most recent and high-profile example of a strategy being pursued by energy and consumer goods companies, as well as by high-tech firms. The appliance maker Haier has a refrigerator factory in South Carolina and distributes its goods through a deal with Wal-Mart Stores Inc. The telecommunications equipment-maker Huawei operates sales offices worldwide, carving into the margins of Cisco Systems Inc. and Nortel Networks Ltd. Chinese energy companies have bought controlling stakes in oil patches from Indonesia to Sudan; China's largest steel-maker, Baoshan Iron and Steel, has bought into iron ore mines in Brazil to ensure reliable supply, and is part of a consortium seeking control of Canada's largest mining firm, Noranda Inc.

The country is no newcomer to global acquisitions. It has looked outside its borders in the past, particularly for natural resources. But now the focus has broadened in scope and shifted to establishing China's most prominent companies as competitors in their own right, not simply low-cost suppliers to the rest of the world.

Since 2000, acquisitions of foreign assets by mainland China-based companies have climbed from a $344 million to an estimated $4 billion to $5 billion this year, with another $14 billion anticipated next year

Another September 11th

I've written about Tim Bray before. As I said then, he is one of the creators of the xml internet language and a leading proponent of open-sources software. Tim has lots of interests. Internet languages, like Java, for the most part, but also photography, music, and politics, as, for example, here.

Here's a current post of his on Chile:

Jara Indictment
The BBC has the news from Chile that one Col. Mario Manriquez has been indicted in the 1973 execution of singer Victor Jara. For those without the history at their fingertips, in 1970 the Chileans elected a socialist as president, in the face of concerted American opposition. The U.S. spent millions, first to try to defeat Allende at the polls, then to fund a gang of military murderers who staged a bloody coup on September 11th 1973, in the process of cementing which they killed a number of Chilean citizens just slightly higher than the total September 11, 2001 body count. The military, allegedly at Manriquez’ orders, broke Jara’s hands to stop him playing, then killed him. But you see, Jara was a Communist, which in the Seventies meant someone that it was O.K. for U.S.-backed dictators to kill. Since there aren’t any Communists now, we use the word “militant” for the same purpose. You don’t have to have been an admirer of Jara’s music or Allende’s presidential record to still be angry, thirty years later. Nixon is already burning in hell, for Chile if nothing else, and while there are seats reserved there for Pinochet and Kissinger, it’s nice to hear that there’s a chance for some justice this side of the grave. Technorati cosmos

Bush and the librarians (Dubya not Laura)

Laura, who holds a Master's degree in Library Science and has worked in school libraries, is head of the Laura Bush Foundation for America's Libraries, which gave over $660,000 in grants to 136 libraries last summer. She also leads the Library of Congress National Book Festival. Her husband is not so keen on libraries or library values. It was his attorney general who mocked and condemned librarians and the American Library Association (see also here). And now he's lending his support to an Alabama legislator who would (unconstitutionally) ban books from libraries. From the Guardian as posted in Arts Journal Daily:

Dismay Agenda - Homophobe Invited By Bush To White House -- The Alabama state legislator who has introduced a bill to ban books that "promote homosexuality" has been invited by George Bush to the White House. "Traditional family values are under attack. They've been under attack "for the last 40 years". The enemy, this time, is not al-Qaida. The axis of evil is "Hollywood, the music industry". We have an obligation to "save society from moral destruction". We have to prevent liberal librarians and trendy teachers from "re-engineering society's fabric in the minds of our children". We have to "protect Alabamians". The Guardian (UK)12/10/04 Posted: 12/08/2004 7:36 pm See also here, here, and here.

Here's more about legislator in Cotton, Alabama, who wants to protect children from the "homosexual agenda" by banning works "that foster homosexuality" including nonfiction books that suggest homosexuality is acceptable and fiction novels with gay characters. The ban would cover books like "Heather has Two Mommies," and also "The Color Purple," "The Picture of Dorian Gray" and "Brideshead Revisted." In addition, the bill would ban books having heterosexual couples committing sodomy and would prohibit teachers from suggesting that homosexuality is OK.

There's so much craziness in this country.

Item: 'US distributors of the film Merchant of Venice, which premiered in London this week, have asked the director to cut out a background fresco by a Venetian old master so it is fit for American television viewers. The director said: "A billion dollars worth of Veronese great master’s frescoes they want paint-boxed out because of this cupid’s willy. It is absolutely absurd.”'

And also the creationism craze. Here's a piece about a preacher who travels the country giving workshops to church groups who want to defend the Bible against the scientists. He attempts to show that scientific age-dating is bunk and evolution theory with it. As one of his host pastors says, “If the Bible is not a true and total account — if we are just accidents, we have no reason for living.” And here's one reporting how in one Georgia county educators are required to put anti-evolution stickers in science textbooks. A swarthmore student has done a good satire of the sticker phenomenon.

A sentence to make it all worth it

Nick and Julia are finishing up their semesters; lots of papers and a couple of exams. Here's a teacher's view of this end-of-semester situation (writing on the history blog, Cliopatria):

I have 22 papers to grade. I am not entirely ecstatic about the task - but I am looking forward to reading them because they will tell me if I utterly wasted the last 14 weeks of my life. Somewhere in those 260+ pages will be a sentence or two that will make it all worth it. Or not. source

Holidays

The Librarian: Quest for the Spear

The library blog world has been discussing a cable movie called "The Librarian: Quest for the Spear," which one librarian says was actually "'The Librarian: Quest for a Spine' because of its lily-livered theft of other, better Hollywood action pictures." The show drew 7 million viewers which, according to Variety, made it the most popular "ad-supported" movie this season. The star is Noah Wyle who is famous for his role as Dr. John Carter on “ER.” (I had to look that up.)

Here's one man-on-the-street review that appeared in a LiveJournal entry:

So I watched "The Librarian: Quest For The Spear" last night, because I am a sucker for sexy nerdy librarians. And man. Totally craptastic plotline, astounding gaping plotholes, horrid special effects, countless made-up "facts", and more cheese than a box of Velveeta, but I TOTALLY LOVED IT. Seriously. It's a TNT made-for-TV movie that premiered last night, so you know they'll be showing it at odd hours all week. If you get a chance, watch it, so people will get it when I start writing Flynn/Giles, because IT WILL HAPPEN. (Random: Discovered this morning that my mother, who generally hates Buffy, shares the Gileslove.)

Some reviews and articles on the movie: here, here, and here.

Here's a link to a compilation of reponses to a questionnaire on the American Library Association web site:

What did the library community have to say about TNT's "The Librarian?"

The is the intro to the ALA page:

(CHICAGO) Last week, the American Library Association (ALA) sought volunteers to watch and share their thoughts on the newest "reel" representation of librarians - TNT's "The Librarian." About 180 librarians and library workers sent responses to a short questionnaire as of the morning of December 6, 2004.

As might be expected, reactions ran the gamut and can be read below. Reponses will be compiled and posted throughout December 8. Thanks to everyone who participated.

Schwinns, Treks, and other bikes

Below, I've put a link to an article in today's Washington Post giving a small lesson in global economics, using bicycle manufacturing as example.

My experience with American-made bikes has been good. Thirty years ago everyone wanted Italian frames and components, but my favorite bike of the time was one made by Albert Eisentraut, a custom builder in Oakland. Back then, I also owned a frame made by Rob Horowitz, a student of his. More recently, I've bought a second-hand made-in-US Cannondale which is currently the best bicycle I own -- really nice.

However, I also like bikes from the made-in-Japan era of the 80's. I currently ride a Centurion Facet bike made about 1986. The frame was made in Japan as were most of the components. I also sometimes ride a made-in-Japan Schwinn Paramount from the same decade. I also used to own a Japanese SOMA. The Paramounts are still available from time to time on ebay, but the Facet and SOMA aren't to be found. The Japanese workmanship was very good; unfortunately, so far as I know, you can't buy a new bike made in Japan any more. I suppose they'd be too expensive.

My second-favorite bike is a Cannondale, made in the USA about five years ago. You can still buy Cannondales made in the US; they are wonderful -- better than the Centurion despite my current preference. As the article in the Post says, you can also buy TREK bikes that are made here; as a matter of fact you can buy the exact same TREK that Lance Armstrong and his team-mates ride if you have the money. The Cannondales and the competition TREKs are expensive. Two years ago I sold my made-in-the-US Schwinn Paramount (manufactured ca. 1979) because I wasn't riding it. The Waterford bike, made in Wisconsin, are successors to the Paramounts of this time and still are made the same way, but in very small quantities.

The lesson for me: as the article says, at the high-end, American manufacturing is competitive, but in the mid- and low-range, there is no way that U.S. can compete with China and other low-wage Asian countries. Is this the way things should be? And if not, what's the solution? Maybe if we wait long enough, China will develop a consumer economy as Japan and Taiwan have done. With rising standards of living in China (already evident in its cities), there may come a rebalancing, but this wouldn't be a huge benefit for the US.

I perceive the underlying problem to be US and global economic policies that have kept interest rates artificially low in the the US. Low interest rates, along with a culture of spending-not-saving (along with a bunch of other factors) have produced a world economy driven by hugely-in-debt US consumers. (Low mortgage rates have been a big factor since refinancing morgages has had the secondary effect to permitting Americans to expand their consumer debt.)

The Federal Reserved and many others are expecting (hoping for) a dwindling and gradual extinction of this amazing spending spree. Others say it may end with a crash. They all agree that it has reached its limits, maily because the US government has become over-dependent on foreigners for funding our national debt; somehow or other Americans are going to have to assume a greater responsibility for this debt.

Well, anyway, here's the reference to the article in the Post:

washingtonpost.com
A Rough Ride for Schwinn Bicycle
As the World Economy Shifted, So Did the Fortunes of an American Classic

By Griff Witte
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, December 3, 2004; Page A01

extracts:

MADISON, Wis. -- In the glass atrium that marks the entrance to the Pacific Cycle company, the old and the new of the bicycle business are displayed side by side. Each is called the Schwinn Sting Ray, and each in its time has been a bestseller.

But the similarities end there. In the space of a generation, everything about the process of designing, producing and selling a Schwinn has changed.

The old Sting Ray broke the conventions of bicycle design, boasting a banana seat, high handlebars and extra-wide tires. In the 1960s and early '70s it became not only a symbol of middle-class aspirations, but also a provider of thousands of jobs that paid good wages with health and retirement benefits.

Today's model, which projects the rough look of a motorcycle, comes from China, where the average factory worker makes less than a dollar an hour. It is a symbol of a different sort -- an illustration of how global economic forces and the sometimes clumsy responses of U.S. companies transformed middle-class jobs into low-wage work both at home and abroad.

A Dorothy Parker anecdote

For Julia, from Crooked Timber:

December 02, 2004
Xmas specials
Posted by Henry

Via About Last Night, SF author John Scalzi presents us with the ten worst Christmas specials ever. Starting with Dorothy Parker and gang.

An Algonquin Round Table Christmas (1927)

Alexander Woolcott, Franklin Pierce Adams, George Kaufman, Robert Benchley and Dorothy Parker were the stars of this 1927 NBC Red radio network special, one of the earliest Christmas specials ever performed. Unfortunately the principals, lured to the table for an unusual evening gathering by the promise of free drinks and pirogies, appeared unaware they were live and on the air, avoiding witty seasonal banter to concentrate on trashing absent Round Tabler Edna Ferber’s latest novel, Mother Knows Best, and complaining, in progressively drunken fashion, about their lack of sex lives. Seasonal material of a sort finally appears in the 23rd minute when Dorothy Parker, already on her fifth drink, can be heard to remark, “one more of these and I’ll be sliding down Santa’s chimney.” The feed was cut shortly thereafter. NBC Red’s 1928 holiday special “Christmas with the Fitzgeralds” was similarly unsuccessful.

Lollipop!

The British Council recently asked people who are not native-English speakers to list the most beautiful words in the English language. Here's the list.

1 Mother
2 Passion
3 Smile
4 Love
5 Eternity
6 Fantastic
7 Destiny
8 Freedom
9 Liberty
10 Tranquillity
11 Peace
12 Blossom
13 Sunshine
14 Sweetheart
15 Gorgeous
16 Cherish
17 Enthusiasm
18 Hope
19 Grace
20 Rainbow
21 Blue
22 Sunflower
23 Twinkle
24 Serendipity
25 Bliss
26 Lullaby
27 Sophisticated
28 Renaissance
29 Cute
30 Cosy
31 Butterfly
32 Galaxy
33 Hilarious
34 Moment
35 Extravaganza
36 Aqua
37 Sentiment
38 Cosmopolitan
39 Bubble
40 Pumpkin
41 Banana
42 Lollipop
43 If
44 Bumblebee
45 Giggle
46 Paradox
47 Delicacy
48 Peekaboo
49 Umbrella
50 Kangaroo
51 Flabbergasted
52 Hippopotamus
53 Gothic
54 Coconut
55 Smashing
56 Whoops
57 Tickle
58 Loquacious
59 Flip-flop
60 Smithereens
61 Oi
62 Gazebo
63 Hiccup
64 Hodgepodge
65 Shipshape
66 Explosion
67 Fuselage
68 Zing
69 Gum
70 Hen night

Source: Mother's the word, David Ward, Thursday November 25, 2004, The Guardian

De$cent of the Greenback (more)

More to add to the chorus of experts sounding alarms about U.S. deficits and the falling dollar.

"On Monday [Nov 22], Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach suggested that a steadily weaker dollar would be a good thing for the U.S. and the global economy -- barring a rapid crash. On Tuesday, he got company from Larry Horwitz, senior industry economist at Decision Economics." Source: Embracing a Weak Buck TheStreet.com.

Last week, in a private meeting, Stephen Roach was much more negative:

"Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish. But you should hear what he's saying in private. Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity. His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic armageddon." Source: Economic 'Armageddon' predicted By Brett Arends/ On State Street. Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Here's the outline of Roach's argument: The size of the U.S. trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling. The Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates in order to fund the debt. As interest rates rise, American citizens, "who are in debt up to their eyeballs," will become insolvent and there will be a "spectacular wave of bankruptcies." The economy will break.

The argument is supported by lots of facts: Every day, the U.S. brings in $2.6 billion from foreign sources, mostly in Asia, to finance the current account deficit (which, you'll recall, is the difference between all the outgoings and incomings). This is 80% of the world's net savings and can't be sustained. The level of household debt in the U.S. equals 85% of the economy. Most people opt for flexible interest rates for new and refinanced mortgages, leaving themselves vulnerable to rate hikes. Paying interest bills now takes up a record share of disposable income and the proportion will grow quickly as interest rates rise.

The main question is how fast the dollar will fall. If the descent is gradual, the international financial community -- with a lot of arm twisting by the U.S. -- should be able to manage it. Otherwise, things could get nasty.

The article says that the Federal Reserve might save the U.S. by letting inflation increase as interest rates increase. If inflation increases fast enough, people get to repay loans with dollars that are significantly cheaper (worth less) than the dollars they borrowed. This is a dangerous way of diminishing debt, however, because it alienates lenders who are then likely both to take their business elsewhere and to demand much higher interest from the U.S.

Other reports give insight into the difficulties of managing the decline in the dollar's value:

An article in the AustralAsian Investment Review
(Once Upon A Time in 2005 November 24, 2004) says that Europeans have stopped buying U.S. Treasury securities and no longer invest in U.S. businesses. This means it's up to the Asians to save the U.S. economy from collapse. To do this they must allow their economies to grow more rapidly and increase the proportion of their production that is bought by customers who are not Americans. They, particularly China, are unwilling to do this. But because they are so heavily dependent on exports to the U.S., they cannot sit back and watch the U.S. economy collapse. They have very strong motives for cooperating with the Federal Reserve to prevent that collapse. The article concludes: "[T]he key element is China. [I]f the Chinese relax their current US$ peg and allow Asian currencies to appreciate against the greenback, global economic growth would no longer be artificially fed through low US interest rates but through sustainable domestic demand growth outside the US, and that, in essence, would make for a better world."

An article in Asia Times Online (SPEAKING FREELY
Crisis towers over the dollar, by W Joseph Stroupe) adds a Russian variable. It says the central bank of Russia has shifted its holdings of foreign currencies. It held 75% of these reserves in dollars a year and a half ago, but now holds only 50% in dollars and the rest in euros. The change in Russian policy may cause Asian central banks to attempt a similar shift. If they try to do that, the U.S. could find itself having to raise interest rates much more rapidly than the Federal Reserve wants and a rapid rise in interest rates could bring on the problems that Stephen Roach discusses.

Today's New York Times has an interesting update and overview. See Foreign Interest Appears to Flag as Dollar Falls, by Edmund L. Andrews, November 27, 2004.

A recent publication from the U.S. General Accounting Office gives background information and data to support these arguments by the economists. It's mostly about domestic problems, not international finance. It points out the difficulties that lay in our future: aging population, decrease in size of labor force, anticipated Social Security and Medicare shortfalls, large deficits, low savings rates, dependence on foreigners to support the federal debt, It also points out the difficulties of sustaining a high level of economic growth in these conditions and say that declines in economic growth will result in lower living standards: "The fiscal policies in place today — absent substantive entitlement reform and dramatic changes in tax and spending policies — will result in large, escalating, and persistent deficits that are economically unsustainable over the long term. In other words, today’s policies cannot continue forever."

Regarding international finance, the report, GAO-04-485SP, Federal Debt: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions, says that the high levels of personal debt of Americans together with the negative effects of current fiscal polices and demographic trends will result in "rising inflation, higher interest rates, and the unwillingness of foreign investors to invest in a weakening American economy." The report points out how much the U.S. is already dependent on foreigners to finance the deficit (in Sept. 2003 foreigners held 37% of U.S. debt) and points to major risks of this dependence, including the possibility to which Stroupe alludes, that the euro "could eliminate the unique advantage held by U.S. securities — a broad, deep market for low-risk securities denominated in an easily convertible currency. As the market for euro-denominated securities broadens and deepens, euro-denominated debt securities could become a closer competitor for U.S. Treasury securities."

Insanity has become the new normal in America

Can you resist this teaser from ArtsJournal?

When Was America Turned Over To The Crackpots, Eh? As viewed from Canada, America's new morality crusade is not only pathetic and wrongheaded but maddening. "Religious right. Moral majority. Family values. Pick a catchphrase and behold the stupefying ascent of the shrill and pathetic, the petty and disconnected, the scolding band of castigators hellbent on telling others what they can watch and hear and even think... Who are these snivelling whiners? These self-righteous, holier-than-thou grumblers who have programmed 'FCC' into their speed dial?" Toronto Star 11/24/04 Posted: 11/24/2004 6:41 am

The author of the piece also says:

Please don't mistake this cranky dispatch for anti-Americanism. I was born in Akron, Ohio and spent many childhood summers in Harrisburg, Penn., surrounded by good people with unwavering commitments to God, the Stars and Stripes, and the military.

America is, in my humble estimation, the greatest country in history. Well, half of it is. The so-called blue states lead the world with innovation, research, development, dominating the economy's competitive sectors while exporting culture and ideas. Those in the red states, not so much.

Also see the Tom Shales piece I already pointed to:

Shales on FCC's Michael Powell
For those who haven't seen it, one of the most passionate and effective shreddings of a public official I have ever witnessed comes from Tom Shales in today's Washington Post. (Source: Cliopatria)

Edible ordnance

These are from World War I (Verdum artillery shells), but may be appropriate for the neo-cons and Iraq war hawks on your Christmas list. The photos are from foodstore online catalogs.




from http://www.cronaca.com/ via cliopatria